"Intelligent decision-making entails knowing what tool to use for what problem." 

Gerd Gigerenzer

There is no such thing as the best decision-making strategy or approach that can be used in every situation.
Every decision-making strategy needs to be adapted to the environment in which it is used.

So, what to do?

Context matters.

First of all, we should identify what kind of environment we are in. If we know all the possible alternatives, their probabilities and possible consequences, we are in the world of risk and can determine the optimal strategy.

If individual components are unknown, we are in the world of uncertainty (i.e., 90% of the time). Calculating the best strategy is impossible. We must find individual solutions to the problem.

In doing so, let us be guided by this trinity of steps to take in uncertain situations:

Making good decisions, knowing what the future holds:

Making good decisions, not knowing what the future holds:

Structures and processes to consciously deal with uncertainty:

Innovation requires a constructive risk-taking culture:

Marvin Siebert
Partner, Germany

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